Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 00:00:00+00:00 11.854999 13.557305 15.403471 17.552559 19.983697 22.646776 25.783224
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 9.551886 11.877747 14.601738 18.020152 22.187795 27.095971 33.306852
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 8.367244 10.974358 14.180214 18.398356 23.787527 30.426358 39.208104
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 7.226302 9.940674 13.426587 18.209983 24.579254 32.741780 43.966086
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 6.291139 9.022778 12.666332 17.851888 25.008001 34.496452 47.985636
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 5.657605 8.426497 12.248338 17.869313 25.879028 36.827170 52.859715
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 5.216589 8.042328 12.066181 18.163518 27.107817 39.673308 58.571386
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 4.794290 7.635216 11.800938 18.292131 28.075591 42.175223 63.911731
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 4.355352 7.155116 11.376943 18.132996 28.580883 44.006231 68.348623
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 4.052035 6.853057 11.188464 18.300247 29.563808 46.569327 73.990459
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 3.877564 6.737839 11.273669 18.887075 31.214102 50.212938 81.462563
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 3.558185 6.353509 10.895667 18.697160 31.610350 51.925936 86.008015
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 3.101669 5.702967 10.041889 17.680279 30.624860 51.440833 87.103708
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 2.954628 5.575885 10.050750 18.102184 32.033416 54.872283 94.729874
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.817197 5.451455 10.049934 18.498665 33.411019 58.312562 102.540913
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.597861 5.157091 9.727126 18.303811 33.750079 60.027558 107.535207
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.376003 4.837328 9.332081 17.945772 33.768843 61.182883 111.613496
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.227585 4.644547 9.152388 17.962680 34.450175 63.507198 117.834494
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.128344 4.539036 9.125855 18.258546 35.651096 66.799413 125.930965
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.015747 4.396532 9.017087 18.387727 36.544782 69.581529 133.246450
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.878253 4.190654 8.769080 18.227827 36.876892 71.352280 138.795596
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.788436 4.076420 8.692406 18.395899 37.841405 74.326984 146.711037
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 1.748887 4.066129 8.823277 18.985633 39.659158 78.983799 158.014669